New Seat Details - Malvern and Ledbury

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Malvern and Ledbury been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	34,625	61.2%
LAB	12,781	22.6%
LIB	5,731	10.1%
Green	2,022	3.6%
UKIP	1,045	1.8%
OTH	353	0.6%
CON Majority	21,844	38.6%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Malvern and Ledbury: Map

List of old seats forming part of Malvern and Ledbury

Old seat: Herefordshire North

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Herefordshire North, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Herefordshire North				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Herefordshire	Arrow	2,798	Ludlow and Leominster	1,513	308	186	0	77	0	0	45	2,129
Herefordshire	Backbury	2,242	Hereford and South Herefordshire	1,085	317	193	0	72	0	0	38	1,705
Herefordshire	Bircher	2,916	Ludlow and Leominster	1,328	392	251	0	95	0	0	50	2,116
Herefordshire	Bishops Frome and Cradley	2,433	Malvern and Ledbury	1,214	231	149	0	167	0	0	23	1,784
Herefordshire	Bromyard Bringsty	2,548	Malvern and Ledbury	1,191	380	217	0	82	0	0	40	1,910
Herefordshire	Bromyard West	2,222	Malvern and Ledbury	1,069	431	209	0	72	0	0	35	1,816
Herefordshire	Castle	2,388	Ludlow and Leominster	1,170	287	184	0	71	0	0	41	1,753
Herefordshire	Credenhill	2,276	Hereford and South Herefordshire	1,239	426	238	0	83	0	0	44	2,030
Herefordshire	Hagley	2,752	Hereford and South Herefordshire	1,385	444	257	0	92	0	0	47	2,225
Herefordshire	Hampton	2,666	Malvern and Ledbury	1,391	299	182	0	72	0	0	36	1,980
Herefordshire	Holmer	1,283	Hereford and South Herefordshire	502	172	102	0	35	0	0	18	829
Herefordshire	Hope End	2,805	Malvern and Ledbury	1,426	306	201	0	80	0	0	38	2,051
Herefordshire	Kington	2,445	Ludlow and Leominster	979	345	508	0	79	0	0	21	1,932
Herefordshire	Ledbury North	2,436	Malvern and Ledbury	1,079	397	229	0	79	0	0	40	1,824
Herefordshire	Ledbury South	2,385	Malvern and Ledbury	1,079	362	342	0	73	0	0	34	1,890
Herefordshire	Ledbury West	2,479	Malvern and Ledbury	1,292	483	255	0	88	0	0	42	2,160
Herefordshire	Leominster East	2,544	Ludlow and Leominster	1,074	507	237	0	286	0	0	22	2,126
Herefordshire	Leominster North and Rural	2,832	Ludlow and Leominster	1,424	457	220	0	228	0	0	21	2,350
Herefordshire	Leominster South	2,465	Ludlow and Leominster	988	496	234	0	253	0	0	39	2,010
Herefordshire	Leominster West	1,997	Ludlow and Leominster	795	332	274	0	190	0	0	16	1,607
Herefordshire	Mortimer	2,542	Ludlow and Leominster	1,181	333	199	0	78	0	0	52	1,843
Herefordshire	Old Gore	2,424	Malvern and Ledbury	1,278	277	170	0	69	0	0	32	1,826
Herefordshire	Queenswood	2,556	Ludlow and Leominster	1,244	407	224	0	83	0	0	46	2,004
Herefordshire	Stoney Street	410	Hereford and South Herefordshire	161	63	31	0	37	0	0	6	298
Herefordshire	Sutton Walls	2,392	Ludlow and Leominster	1,238	379	202	0	76	0	0	39	1,934
Herefordshire	Three Crosses	2,658	Malvern and Ledbury	1,408	308	179	0	71	0	0	33	1,999
Herefordshire	Weobley	2,725	Ludlow and Leominster	1,361	356	201	0	81	0	0	42	2,041
	Total	64,619		31,094	9,495	5,874	0	2,769	0	0	940	50,172

The full details of these calculations are given on the Herefordshire North seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Worcestershire West

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Worcestershire West, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Worcestershire West				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Malvern Hills	Alfrick and Leigh	2,844	Malvern and Ledbury	1,463	448	107	88	36	0	0	0	2,142
Malvern Hills	Baldwin	1,654	Malvern and Ledbury	1,016	181	53	18	17	0	0	0	1,285
Malvern Hills	Broadheath	2,782	Malvern and Ledbury	1,427	403	215	35	34	0	0	0	2,114
Malvern Hills	Chase	4,648	Malvern and Ledbury	1,874	1,029	560	138	177	0	0	0	3,778
Malvern Hills	Dyson Perrins	3,330	Malvern and Ledbury	1,323	707	176	107	139	0	0	0	2,452
Malvern Hills	Hallow	1,488	Malvern and Ledbury	781	255	62	19	19	0	0	0	1,136
Malvern Hills	Kempsey	3,051	Evesham	1,637	528	145	41	44	0	0	0	2,395
Malvern Hills	Lindridge	1,846	Malvern and Ledbury	1,054	210	59	18	20	0	0	0	1,361
Malvern Hills	Link	4,825	Malvern and Ledbury	1,884	1,235	422	145	79	0	0	0	3,765
Malvern Hills	Longdon	1,673	Evesham	928	220	140	18	19	0	0	0	1,325
Malvern Hills	Martley	1,411	Malvern and Ledbury	740	240	51	15	40	0	0	0	1,086
Malvern Hills	Morton	1,684	Evesham	883	250	74	19	24	0	0	0	1,250
Malvern Hills	Pickersleigh	4,433	Malvern and Ledbury	1,630	1,551	569	141	72	0	0	0	3,963
Malvern Hills	Powick	3,058	Malvern and Ledbury	1,296	505	359	83	40	0	0	0	2,283
Malvern Hills	Priory	3,039	Malvern and Ledbury	1,345	585	380	77	123	0	0	0	2,510
Malvern Hills	Ripple	1,436	Evesham	834	194	56	18	17	0	0	0	1,119
Malvern Hills	Teme Valley	1,544	Malvern and Ledbury	914	197	55	37	18	0	0	0	1,221
Malvern Hills	Tenbury	2,924	Malvern and Ledbury	1,585	541	116	39	37	0	0	0	2,318
Malvern Hills	Upton and Hanley	3,377	Evesham	1,643	573	156	94	117	0	0	0	2,583
Malvern Hills	Wells	2,630	Malvern and Ledbury	1,322	378	134	29	104	0	0	0	1,967
Malvern Hills	West	3,267	Malvern and Ledbury	1,540	659	217	41	167	0	0	0	2,624
Malvern Hills	Woodbury	1,662	Malvern and Ledbury	1,004	183	63	15	47	0	0	0	1,312
Wychavon	Bredon	2,089	Evesham	1,184	229	90	23	23	0	0	0	1,549
Wychavon	Eckington	2,215	Evesham	1,140	407	74	23	25	0	0	0	1,669
Wychavon	Elmley Castle and Somerville	2,015	Evesham	1,105	249	70	20	61	0	0	0	1,505
Wychavon	Pershore	5,836	Evesham	2,262	1,155	689	164	82	0	0	0	4,352
Wychavon	South Bredon Hill	1,913	Evesham	890	266	212	16	25	0	0	0	1,409
	Total	72,674		34,704	13,378	5,304	1,481	1,606	0	0	0	56,473

The full details of these calculations are given on the Worcestershire West seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Malvern and Ledbury

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Malvern and Ledbury
Herefordshire	Bishops Frome and Cradley	2,408	Herefordshire North	1,214	231	149	0	167	0	0	23	1,784
Herefordshire	Bromyard Bringsty	2,578	Herefordshire North	1,191	380	217	0	82	0	0	40	1,910
Herefordshire	Bromyard West	2,454	Herefordshire North	1,069	431	209	0	72	0	0	35	1,816
Herefordshire	Hampton	2,674	Herefordshire North	1,391	299	182	0	72	0	0	36	1,980
Herefordshire	Hope End	2,769	Herefordshire North	1,426	306	201	0	80	0	0	38	2,051
Herefordshire	Ledbury North	2,463	Herefordshire North	1,079	397	229	0	79	0	0	40	1,824
Herefordshire	Ledbury South	2,551	Herefordshire North	1,079	362	342	0	73	0	0	34	1,890
Herefordshire	Ledbury West	2,918	Herefordshire North	1,292	483	255	0	88	0	0	42	2,160
Herefordshire	Old Gore	2,466	Herefordshire North	1,278	277	170	0	69	0	0	32	1,826
Herefordshire	Three Crosses	2,700	Herefordshire North	1,408	308	179	0	71	0	0	33	1,999
Malvern Hills	Alfrick and Leigh	2,821	Worcestershire West	1,463	448	107	88	36	0	0	0	2,142
Malvern Hills	Baldwin	1,692	Worcestershire West	1,016	181	53	18	17	0	0	0	1,285
Malvern Hills	Broadheath	2,786	Worcestershire West	1,427	403	215	35	34	0	0	0	2,114
Malvern Hills	Chase	4,976	Worcestershire West	1,874	1,029	560	138	177	0	0	0	3,778
Malvern Hills	Dyson Perrins	3,231	Worcestershire West	1,323	707	176	107	139	0	0	0	2,452
Malvern Hills	Hallow	1,496	Worcestershire West	781	255	62	19	19	0	0	0	1,136
Malvern Hills	Lindridge	1,793	Worcestershire West	1,054	210	59	18	20	0	0	0	1,361
Malvern Hills	Link	4,959	Worcestershire West	1,884	1,235	422	145	79	0	0	0	3,765
Malvern Hills	Martley	1,432	Worcestershire West	740	240	51	15	40	0	0	0	1,086
Malvern Hills	Pickersleigh	5,220	Worcestershire West	1,630	1,551	569	141	72	0	0	0	3,963
Malvern Hills	Powick	3,007	Worcestershire West	1,296	505	359	83	40	0	0	0	2,283
Malvern Hills	Priory	3,306	Worcestershire West	1,345	585	380	77	123	0	0	0	2,510
Malvern Hills	Teme Valley	1,608	Worcestershire West	914	197	55	37	18	0	0	0	1,221
Malvern Hills	Tenbury	3,052	Worcestershire West	1,585	541	116	39	37	0	0	0	2,318
Malvern Hills	Wells	2,592	Worcestershire West	1,322	378	134	29	104	0	0	0	1,967
Malvern Hills	West	3,457	Worcestershire West	1,540	659	217	41	167	0	0	0	2,624
Malvern Hills	Woodbury	1,729	Worcestershire West	1,004	183	63	15	47	0	0	0	1,312
	Total	75,138		34,625	12,781	5,731	1,045	2,022	0	0	353	56,557

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Malvern and Ledbury. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Harriett Baldwin (CON)
County/Area:	Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	75,138
Turnout:	75.3%

Malvern and Ledbury: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Malvern and Ledbury: Overview

Introduction